The new House majority leader and longtime judicial-screening chairman is behind in unofficial returns. The margin is inside South Carolina’s automatic-recount range.
Ten weeks ago, House Republicans gave Micah Caskey one of the most powerful jobs in the South Carolina Statehouse. On Wednesday morning he was trailing a first-time Democratic challenger in the West Columbia district he has represented since 2017. The race has become a focal point, as Micah Caskey Trails Democrat Joe Madge by a narrow margin.
Unofficial returns show Democrat Joe Madge with 7,248 votes, or 50.3%, to Caskey’s 7,147, or 49.6%, in House District 89. All Lexington County precincts have reported [The State via Yahoo News, 2026]. That is a gap of 101 votes out of more than 14,000 cast. WestMetroNews, which covers Cayce and West Columbia, reported the same totals and cited the SC Election Commission’s count as complete [WestMetroNews, 2026].
For readers along the Grand Strand, this is more than a Midlands story. The majority leader helps decide which bills reach the House floor, including bills that affect Horry and Georgetown counties. For years Caskey has also been one of the central figures on the commission that screens the judges who sit on the bench in our own 15th Judicial Circuit. A change in either seat would be felt here.
The outcome was not clear early on election night. With about 83% of the estimated vote counted, WIS showed Caskey narrowly ahead, 5,923 to 5,894, a lead of just 29 votes [WIS, 2026].
The ballots counted after that point broke the other way. Comparing the WIS snapshot with the final unofficial totals, Madge added about 1,350 votes in the last stretch and Caskey added about 1,225. That swing of roughly 130 votes took Caskey from a narrow lead to a 101-vote deficit. It is a reminder that early returns in a close race reflect which precincts and ballot types are counted first. They are not a forecast.
The narrow margin matters for a specific legal reason. State law requires a recount when the difference between candidates is 1% or less of the total votes cast. In District 89, according to the State Election Commission’s standard as reported by The State, that comes to roughly 144 votes [The State via Yahoo News, 2026]. A 101-vote gap falls inside that line, so the race appears headed for a mandatory recount rather than a concession.
To see why Republicans are taking this seriously, it helps to look at who Caskey is and what he holds.
Caskey, 45, is a Columbia native and attorney. He served as a U.S. Marine Corps officer before law school at the University of South Carolina, then worked as a felony prosecutor in the 11th Circuit Solicitor’s Office [Wikipedia, 2026; Spectrum News, 2026]. He first won the District 89 seat in 2016, succeeding retiring Rep. Kenny Bingham. In the Republican primary runoff that year he beat West Columbia Councilman Tem Miles with about two-thirds of the vote [WestMetroNews, 2016; Ballotpedia, 2016].
His rise at the Statehouse was steady. He chaired the House’s bipartisan freshman caucus early on [FITSNews, 2016]. After the V.C. Summer nuclear collapse he helped organize a bipartisan energy caucus and was an outspoken critic of SCANA [Wikipedia, 2026]. He later chaired the House Rules Committee and sat on Ways and Means. On Aug. 28 of this year, the House Republican Caucus unanimously chose him as majority leader, succeeding Rep. Davey Hiott [Spectrum News, 2026; WACH/ABC News 4, 2026].
The timing makes this result unusual. Caucuses generally pick leaders whose seats look safe. If Caskey loses, House Republicans will need a new floor leader before he has served a full session in the role.
His role in judicial selection may matter even more, and it gets far less attention.
South Carolina is one of only two states where the legislature elects most judges. Before lawmakers vote, candidates go through the Judicial Merit Selection Commission (JMSC). The commission screens applicants and decides which names advance to the General Assembly [Ballotpedia, 2026; Live 5 News, 2024].
Caskey has been at the center of that process. Official commission agendas list him as chairman during the November 2023 screening hearings [SC JMSC, 2023]. The commission’s 2025 candidate announcement and hearing transcripts also identify him as chairman, with Sen. Luke Rankin as vice-chairman [SC JMSC, 2025].
The commission has been under reform pressure for years. Critics argue that lawyer-legislators hold too much influence over the judges they later appear before. In 2024 lawmakers passed a compromise. It expanded the commission from 10 members to 12, gave the governor four appointments for the first time, and set term limits for members [Live 5 News, 2024; SC Policy Council, 2024]. Gov. Henry McMaster signed it but wrote to legislators that the changes were incremental and that more reform was needed [Office of the Governor, 2024].
The House’s legislative appointees to the commission are sitting House members [Maynard Nexsen, 2024]. If Caskey’s seat goes to Madge, his place on the panel would almost certainly change hands too. That would remove one of the most experienced screeners in Columbia, and it could come close to the commission’s current cycle. The JMSC’s 2026 public hearings were scheduled this fall, with written testimony due by noon on Nov. 2, the day before the election [SC JMSC, 2026].
For Horry and Georgetown readers, this is the practical point. The people who screen circuit and family court candidates shape who ends up on the bench in Conway and Georgetown. A change in commission leadership would be a real change for that process.
None of this explains how a well-funded majority leader ended up in a recount. The district itself does.
This is not the first time Caskey has gone down to the wire. In June 2022, during primary season, he beat challenger Melanie Shull by just 26 votes, 1,530 to 1,504. That race also triggered a mandatory recount, which confirmed his win [WestMetroNews, 2022]. Taken together, the two races show a lawmaker who has drawn serious opposition from the right in a primary and now from the left in a general election.
Madge, 59, is an engineer who spent his career in manufacturing [The State via Yahoo News, 2026]. His campaign described the district as including West Columbia, Cayce and Springdale. He ran on a practical, problem-solving pitch and noted that Republicans have held the seat for at least 25 years [Madge campaign, 2026].
The statewide picture helps explain why he was on the ballot at all. In 2026, for the first time in decades, Democrats filed candidates in all 124 state House districts [Wikipedia, 2026]. Many of those campaigns were long shots. District 89 shows what can happen when a contested race lands in a closely divided suburb.
This does not look like a regional wave. In neighboring District 88, Republican Rep. John Lastinger won reelection 57% to 43%, and Republican incumbents across most of Lexington County’s other House seats also won [WestMetroNews, 2026]. Whatever happened in District 89 appears specific to that district and that candidate, not the start of a Midlands realignment.
Even if he loses, Caskey’s party keeps a large majority. Republicans held 88 of 124 seats after the 2024 election [Ballotpedia, 2024]. A single seat will not change control of the chamber.
The leadership consequences are bigger than the arithmetic. A majority leader runs floor strategy, counts votes and speaks for the caucus. Losing that person between the election and the January session would force House Republicans into a quick leadership race. Hiott, who was named majority leader emeritus through the election cycle, could also become relevant again [Spectrum News, 2026]. Coastal lawmakers would have a say in who gets the job, and that choice will shape which priorities move in 2027.
We will update this story when certified results and any recount are complete.
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – Democrat leads Rep. Micah Caskey by 101 votes; Lexington County House race could head to recount — The State via Yahoo News (2026)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – Democrat Joe Madge leads State Rep. Micah Caskey… — WestMetroNews (2026)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – WIS Election Results — WIS (2026)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – Here’s who is running for the Lexington County-based state House District 89 seat — The State via Yahoo News (2026)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – Micah Caskey elected as next SC House majority leader — Spectrum News (2026)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – New SC House Majority Leader talks State House priorities — WACH / ABC News 4 (2026)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – Joe Madge for SC House District 89 — Campaign website (2026)
Recount confirms Rep. Micah Caskey’s win in House Seat 89 race — WestMetroNews (2022)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – Micah Caskey — Wikipedia
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – Tem Miles / 2016 HD 89 results — Ballotpedia
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – JMSC 2025 candidate announcement (Caskey, Chairman) — SC Statehouse (2025)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – JMSC 2026 public hearings media release — SC Statehouse (2026)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – SC lawmakers approve changes to judge selection process — Live 5 News (2024)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – Gov. McMaster’s S. 1046 signing statement — Office of the Governor (2024)
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – Judicial reform gathering momentum at the Statehouse — SC Policy Council
Micah Caskey Trails Democrat – Judicial Reform Legislation Becomes Law in the Palmetto State — Maynard Nexsen (2024)
2026 South Carolina House of Representatives election — Wikipedia
South Carolina House of Representatives elections — Ballotpedia
